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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by topics such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.